More NFL Teaser Math

Betting undervalued teams is the best way to go when betting against the spread. Just because you think one team is better than another is not a good reason to bet them when it comes to spreads. One example of this was the Buffalo Bills game in Week Seven where they lost to the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens were clearly the better team, but the Bills managed to keep the game closer than Ravens fans felt comfortable with throughout the entire game. The game went into overtime and the Ravens ended up winning the game by 3 points, nowhere near the 13 point deficit that Vegas had pegged on the game.

To turn a profit with three or four legged teasers at the above stated odds, you need to be right more than 70.7 percent of the time for each leg, rather than the 72.4 percent that you need for two legged teasers to be profitable. The tradeoff, of course, is the fact that three and four legged teasers are considerably more difficult because they consist of more stipulations.

This is not to say that the Bears are a bad team. They have some glaring weaknesses though, and the Giants were prepared to exploit these weak spots. A careful examination of the first three games of the season would have revealed this.

Another example is Tony Romo and his Dallas Cowboys. Going into this season, people were hyping this team as a contender for the Super Bowl. A series of devastating losses early in the season surprised many bettors and dashed the Cowboys’ hopes for an easy road to the playoffs. Going into Week Seven, the Cowboys have a 1-4 record, their lone win coming from a victory in Houston against the Texans. These losses should not have come as a surprise, though. The Cowboys did little to improve over the offseason, their main acquisition being rookie receiver Dez Bryant. Tony Romo is still Tony Romo, he has another year experience, but this does not necessarily translate into an improvement. The Cowboys finished their season last year at 11-5, tying for the lead in their Division with the Philadelphia Eagles. But this season’s schedule looks to be much more difficult than last year’s; without major improvements to the team, they will not finish with quite as impressive of a record.

Currently, the Cowboys are last in their Division-don’t be surprised to see this go unchanged throughout the season. The Redskins have picked up a great quarterback in Donovan McNabb, the Eagles have some much needed depth with Kevin Kolb leading the team and Michael Vick backing him up, and the Giants are recovering from a shaky start to show that they are the dominant team that they once were. The Cowboys have a lot of ground to make up, and need quite a bit of luck to do so.

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